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It seems that in the last few days the situation in Greece has taken a palpable turn for the worse. Not that any new economic revelations have revealed themselves, but rather there has begun a noticeable shift from the contained economic realm to the social realm. First, credit rating agencies S&P and Moody’s have both issued warnings that Greece might face further downgrades if the country…

It seems that in the last few days the situation in Greece has taken a palpable turn for the worse. Not that any new economic revelations have revealed themselves, but rather there has begun a noticeable shift from the contained economic realm to the social realm. First, credit rating agencies S&P and Moody’s have both issued warnings that Greece might face further downgrades if the country…

Risk appetite took a significant hit yesterday, as German IFO and US consumer confidence failed to impress the markets and concerns over Greece’s impending 24 hour strike weigh on sentiment. US equity closed down and today Asian and European markets followed. This was in spite of the positive economic data from Japan, that looked encouraging, as Jan trade surplus Y85.2 bln vs. Y108.5 bln deficit…

The lull in USD strength at the start of this week has quickly reversed this morning as lower than forecast IFO data in Germany and dovish central bank rhetoric from the UK has once again sent traders scurrying back to risk aversion trades. The BoE’s Governor King spoke to the Treasury select committee in London, opening with the assessment that the UK economy was still fragile and the risks to…

Issues surrounding Greece are still the key driver of FX pricing and given the outlook, it will keep the EUR under pressure. This weekend, the German magazine “Spiegel” suggested that a eur25bn bailout was being negotiated, which gave the single currency and risk correlated trades a slight boost, but optimism was quickly grounded when the German Finance Minister denied the rumour. But more…

Issues surrounding Greece are still the key driver of FX pricing and given the outlook, it will keep the EUR under pressure. This weekend, the German magazine “Spiegel” suggested that a eur25bn bailout was being negotiated, which gave the single currency and risk correlated trades a slight boost, but optimism was quickly grounded when the German Finance Minister denied the rumour. But more…

By now the whole world has heard about the Federal Reserve raising the discount rate by 25bp to 0.75% last night. While the Feds official rhetoric claims that it is not signaling any shift in policy or economic outlook, it would be naïve view it in any other way. In his written testimony on Feb. 10th Fed Chairman Bernanke stated the Fed could adjust the discount rate “before long”, and this would…

Yesterday’s correction in oversold positions was short lived and the USD accumulation has continued unabated since. While no one story or headlines was the clear driver of risk aversion, the solid US economic data and FOMC minutes definitely supported USD bulls. US Housing starts came out 591k vs. 581k exp., while industrial production printed at 0.9 vs. 0.7 market expectation. Then, the FOMC…

Yesterday’s correction in oversold positions was short lived and the USD accumulation has continued unabated since. While no one story or headlines was the clear driver of risk aversion, the solid US economic data and FOMC minutes definitely supported USD bulls. US Housing starts came out 591k vs. 581k exp., while industrial production printed at 0.9 vs. 0.7 market expectation. Then, the FOMC…

Risk appetite has been rallying since yesterday, as the meeting of the Eurozone Finance Ministers resulted in the delay of any meaningful decision till mid-March. On the surface, this would seem to be negative for risk correlated trades, but given the size and speed of the recent selling, we view this recent move as a natural short-term unwind of overly sold positions, rather than a complete…