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The Asian session was muted this morning due to Singapore’s holiday and Monday began with the same debate we left off with on Friday. The US economy has become the only topic that matters to the market with some side chatter on Wheat. The recent run of soft economic data including Friday’s disappointing ex-census NFPs [...]

This morning’s UK industrial production data was a rather large miss to the downside, with June figures revealing a -0.5% MoM contraction in activity compared to the consensus estimate of +0.1%. However, in spite of being a disappointment compared to consensus, the year on year data (+1.3% vs. +1.9% expected) is still consistent with [...]

After a pretty decent run, we’re seeing a slight pullback in risk-correlated trades this morning. The pullback shouldn’t last long, as it seems to be more of a natural short-term correction ahead of the big events later this week. With the 2 major European central bank decisions coming around and Friday’s NFPs in the US, [...]

Risk-correlated trades continue to trade in bullish style while the USD is being sold off across the board. The general worry surrounding the US economy, reinforced by the Fed’s official comments and yesterday’s weak pending home sales, is that the US recovery is running out of steam. There has been further buzz among analysts of [...]

The USD is currently under siege. Despite the stronger-than-expected ISM figures bolstering global equity markets, the downward trend in US economic data and the anti-recovery remarks from notable speakers have taken their toll. The conversation is heavily skewed toward additional forms of QE by the Fed, in what form we’re not exactly sure. Fed Chairman [...]

The market’s reaction to last week’s US GDP figures is somewhat baffling to us. The 2.4% annualized pace of growth certainly missed the ambitious 2.6% that consensus had been predicting, but in absolute terms this was still an extremely robust figure for a fully developed economy. Furthermore, the massive upward revision to last quarter’s reading [...]

FX markets continue with their choppy, noncommittal trading pattern. But as investors concerns ease and EU spreads tighten significantly, markets are leaning towards selling USD (interestingly not case with other safe-have FX trades like JPY and CHF) and buying of risky assets. But given that summer trading pattern is in full effect, we are seeing a variety of…

Markets are trading in a lethargic manner as participants continue to nervously take on risk-correlated trades. The move toward risk is logical because without the massive sovereign crisis fear hovering over the market like the Sword of Damocles, one needs to consider the fundamentals - particularly monetary policy, as the core driver. Overall, the rate [...]

Risk correlated trades had a strong showing yesterday as banking stocks rallied and concerns over the inadequacies of the Stress Test dissipated. The USD lost ground to both the GBP and EUR while longs in JPY and CHF were equally cut. Risky trades continued to benefit throughout the trading day in spite of US Consumer [...]

Just as the stress test advocates were getting ready to declare Friday’s results a success due to a selloff in USD and rally in equity markets, we then ran right into a summer whipsaw. The broad majority of G10 currencies sharply reversed their brief trends with today’s European open. Yesterday’s wave of risky [...]